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A review of the daily newspaper would tell any food product developer that they likely should be recognizant of the demographics and population trends throughout the world as well as within the United States. The study both within the U.S. and throughout the world gives concrete data for predicting ethnic and cultural changes and potential market opportunities. An excellent article (National Geographic, October 1998) on the global population pointed out five major trends: A review of the trends notes the changes which have occurred and the potential for change in the future. The 1993 U.S. Census Department (Food Engineering, February 1993, p. 93)estimated the increased diversity of America As Follows:
Totals may not add up since many people are members of more than one ethnic groupThere are quite a number of projections of US Population in the next millineum. The National Georgraphic Society indicates there will be 275,119 thousands. This resource also shows the increased urbanization, longer lives, increased mobility, and other significant changes world wise. From the U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. and Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C., 1996 show an increasing age in the population. We are seeing some evidence of this in that the food pyramid for older citizens stresses more nutrient dense foods. All this translates to choosing darker and more nutrient-rich vegetables and cereals fortified with vitamins at the grocery store. The new pyramid stresses water consumption as well. The Mexico population is also available. The change in ethnic make-up is also important. Wacker (1992) indicates that in the 2000 census, the state of California will be 25% black, 25% Asian, 25% Hispanic and 25% "All Others". This will have considerable implications. It means that more and more we must be recognizant in the food industry of the demographics. There is another census of interest and importance to those in food-related fields. That is the U.S. Census of manufacturers, shipments, inventories and orders. Another excellent resource is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Oregon has a relatively unique "small kitchen food production" law. These laws and regulations permit the selling of products made in their kitchen (which must meet the health and sanitation regulations). This meants that the demographics within a state or commuity is important. In Oregon one would contact and use the Center for Population Research and Census at Portland State University. In a study, they recently (1999) indicated that the state's population grew by an estimated 374,679 people from 1990 to 1997 with the greatest rates of growth occurring in Central Oregon, the Southern Willamette Valley and Southern Oregon. For example, one should recognize that the senior-citizen population in Oregon is about 437,000 or 13.6% of Oregon's population. This is higher than the national average of 12.7 percent. What are the implications of this for food marketing? What are the impacts of the "aging population"? Rydingsword (1999( reported that adult householders 65 and older have a median net worth of $88,192 as compared to those 35 and younger whose net worth is $36,623. Does this relate to available food products? Which group would you focus towards? Rydingsword(1999) reported that in 1992, only 12.9% of those 65 and older lived at or below the poverty line as compared14.7% of those 35% and younger. One should access the various opportunities to use census data, making analysis of populations.
In discussing the demographics and population in conjunction with food product development one generally focuses on age or cultural diversity. However, the production of adequate food products can not disregard the relationship between population and the food supply and food secruity. It is pertinent to note that the world population has increased at a high (Daily et al., 1998) average annual rate of 1.8% since 1950. This is unusually high. The indicators of human well-being (gross output per head, infant mortality rate, life expectancy, literacy) have shown improvement, likely due to commoidty production. It is estimated that global food demand could easily double over the period 1990-2030, with 2.5 to 3 fold increases in the poorest countries. What are the opportunities for food companies, for those of us in food product development? Certainly, we don't want to make the same product and commodity mistakes of the past. Review cultural diversity or ethnicity and food product development at the Food Resource at http://food.oregonstate.edu/misc/culture.html. In studying demographics and population there is a closely related aspect as well. That is looking at land use and available land for food production. The Oregon Department of Agriculture has available land use informaion and maps. Also links are available to other aspects of food production such as, information for farmers, water use, commodity information, and food safety. This not only gives production information and possibilities but actual level of production.
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Daily et al. 1998, October. National Georgraphic.
Howland, D. 1999March 1. Nutrition researchers modify food pyramid for older folks. Corvallis Gazette Times. B6.
Wacker, W. 1992August. The demography of tomorrow. Retail Business Review 60(6): 12.